Inman Poll: Insiders expect market bottom this year
By Jessica Swesey, Wednesday, June 4, 2008.Bookmarking Sites
We asked. You answered.
In a recent informal Inman News reader poll, 44 percent of respondents said they expect the housing market to hit bottom in the second half of 2008.
Following up were 21 percent who said they expect a market bottom in the first half of 2009.
Another 19 percent said they expect the bottom to hit in the second half of 2009, and the remaining 17 percent are remaining bearish with no expectations for a market bottom until early 2010.
Here's a look at the latest home sales numbers:
Existing home sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million in April, down 17.5 percent from a year ago and down 1 percent compared to March, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The median price of all resale homes was $202,300, while the median price for resale single-family homes was $200,700 and the median price for resale condos and co-ops was $214,900. The single-family price dropped 8.5 percent and the condo and co-op price fell 3.7 percent in April compared to April 2007.
New-home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 526,000 in April -- this rate is a projection of a monthly sales total over a 12-month period, adjusted to account for seasonal fluctuations in sales activity.
If you're having trouble moving properties, read "What to do if your home won't sell" by Inman News columnist Dian Hymer.
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Submitted by Dr. Sally Witt on June 4, 2008 - 12:14pm.
Yes, the market is tough. Yes, there may be a bottom here, coming, or just past.
There is always business to be done. There are always people that need our help to buy and sell.
Don't be discouraged by the news, keep your head up and take advantage of the business opportunities that are there for you today!
You can really help a family by selling their home before a foreclosure, and in helping a buyer get a home that they could not afford in a higher market. There is a lot of good to be done in the real estate business.
Best of Success,
Sally
Sally Witt, Breakthrough Coach
http://www.drsallywitt.com
www.blogtalkradio.com/drsallywitt
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sallywitt
http://twitter.com/drsallywitt
Submitted by wayne helmore on June 4, 2008 - 11:06pm.
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Submitted by Tommi Crow on June 5, 2008 - 7:51am.
The present inventory of unsold homes is around 12 months. More inventory is being added daily. How can any professional call a bottom or near bottom in the face of these facts?
Fair market value for real estate inventory is a 5-6 month supply of unsold homes. Until our present inventory is cut in half, no one can correctly call a bottom.
I would seriously question the motives of anyone who is trying to convince us that the numbers are lying...
www.infotube.net
Submitted by Steve Simon on June 6, 2008 - 4:05am.
I don't doubt the numbers from your poll, but I would sugget you read the "Perfect Storm" post on my blog's (links from my website).
Anyone that thinks there will be short term to the conditions they find in the real estate arena is being very simplistic. There are factors in play that have never been in the positions they are in now.
The energy situation has sparked riots in France and Belgium. The "Dark Feeling" towards the US in the oil producing areas has never been this great before. The banking and investment arms of American industry are interwoven with foreign dollars that can be pulled from our economy at will by governments that do not have our best interests at heart. Not to mention our almost complete failure to replace any manufacturing jobs (in any significant way) over the llast twenty years.
If you think you recover from this in a few more months, i have some condo's I'd like to show you!
Submitted by Chris Frantz on June 6, 2008 - 4:34am.
I agree that the market should turn around this year. The homes prices have fallen too much for people to pass up. You can check out the Hernando County Market Reports that shows prices may have hit bottom.
Hernando County Real Estate
Spring
Submitted by Wendy Polisi on June 6, 2008 - 1:07pm.
I think it is dificult to say when the market will turn around in a general sense, because different markets will turn at different times. Markets like South Florida aren't going to recover any time soon! Markets like Atlanta that are traditionally Primary Residence markets (rather than Investor) will recover much quicker than markets that were flooded with novice "investors" who purchased with the intend to flip and now are being forced to unload or foreclose.
Also, within a markets there will be different recovery times. Single Family Homes will obviously recover long before condos just about everywhere.
Submitted by Christine Donovan - Costa Mesa Real Estate on June 7, 2008 - 11:00pm.
It is difficult to determine when the market will turn around. There are indicators such as more escrows and such that indicate it may be coming, but as with when we would reach the peak, it's just too hard to call right now.
My suggestion is that if a buyer wants to buy, plans to stay in the property for several years and can afford the payment, he may want to take advantage of the current interest rates and the down market, understanding that it may still go down further.
Submitted by Rick Belben on June 12, 2008 - 5:48pm.
Even when we hit the bottom I really do not think we will come bouncing back up right away. It will take time in the overheated markets to work off the excess inventory. There are some positive signs out there starting to appear.
Rick Belben
Amerivest Realty of Central Florida
Orlando Real Estate
Orlando MLS
Submitted by Jeff Manson on July 10, 2008 - 4:13pm.
I think that is wishful thinking! I really think the market has a couple more years of adjusting before it flattens out. Then it will be flat for a couple years and then it will bounce back.
I would suggest saving your pennies a couple more years.
Jeff Manson
American Dream Realty
46 Hoolai St.
Kailua, Hawaii 96734
808-792-7040
Personal: Hawaii real estate agent
Company: Hawaii real estate search
Submitted by Christian Stogner on August 1, 2008 - 8:30pm.
Markets like Tampa that are traditionally Primary Residence markets will recover much quicker than markets that were flooded with novice "investors" who purchased with the intend to flip.
Christian
Integrated Capital
Tampa Mortgages